Iran tensions flare on a quiet Sunday, with jobs data ahead

Good morning. With U.S. markets closed, here is a look back at last week and ahead to this one. The Fed's Kevin Warsh set the tone. He reportedly floated cutting the Fed's eight scheduled meetings a year, and economists worry that fewer scheduled decisions will mean more uncertainty, not less. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said the sharp Treasury selloff was a signal that the Fed needs to earn back its inflation-fighting credibility with a rate hike.

Over the weekend, tensions in the Middle East rose again. A tanker near Oman came under fire as Iran threatens to close key shipping lanes, and a report citing U.S. officials said President Trump has ordered the military to prepare further strikes on Iran, possibly as soon as this weekend. The cost of the war is already showing up in shops, with companies raising prices on everyday items such as beer, paint and french fries.

Stocks wobbled last week but finished on a firmer note. Tech jumped more than 5% on Thursday, lifting the Nasdaq 3.8% in two days, and the S&P 500 gained 1% for the week to end July roughly flat. Microsoft and Amazon were winners; Apple and Meta were rattled by earnings, a reminder that results are sorting companies hard.

Two things to watch this week are Sunday's OPEC+ meeting and the July jobs report. Even if producers raise output targets again, many analysts say risks around the Strait of Hormuz make it hard to ship the extra barrels, so oil prices may not fall.