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Diesel, not crude, is the squeeze; Trump eyes an AI watchdog

Good Sunday morning. If last week fits on one line, it was a Fed hike colliding with $100 oil. Over the weekend, a new thread appeared. President Trump said on social media that he will create an AI Force to oversee AI rules and name an AI czar. It is the first time he has called for federal oversight, and it comes as voters grow uneasy about AI.

Inside the industry, the speed debate goes on. Anthropic's Dario Amodei wants to slow down, while Nvidia's Jensen Huang says engineering, not new laws, is the answer. Europe's AI firms, Mistral among them, rejected the idea outright, arguing US rivals use safety worries to lock in dominance.

On energy, one analyst's point stands out: watch diesel, not crude. US refineries are running at 97-98% of capacity, so there is little room left to squeeze, and diesel set a fresh record. Saudi Aramco also told some European refiners it cannot supply October crude.

To sum up the week: the S&P 500 slipped 0.08%, its second weekly decline, the Dow fell for a third week, and only the Nasdaq edged up. The surface looks steady, but seven of the 11 sectors are oversold. Coming up are US flash PMIs, Costco earnings and talks ahead of Xi's visit next week.

briefing.watch

  • Wednesday's flash US PMIs for September

    How hard the energy shock is hitting manufacturing and services

  • Okta analyst day and Costco earnings

    Reads on software demand and consumer strength

  • Bessent-He Lifeng meeting before Xi's visit

    Chinese cars and a pause on new tariffs are likely topics

// briefing.sources