Index holds, interior cracks, all eyes on US-China

Monday morning. Looking back at last week, a first Fed hike and $100 oil hit at the same time, yet the S&P 500 ended the week down just 0.08%. That looks surprisingly sturdy. Look underneath and seven of the 11 sectors are oversold, with the Nasdaq and the big tech names doing the heavy lifting.

How long that lasts depends on energy. After the Saudi pipeline attack, Aramco told some European refiners it cannot deliver October crude, and Qatar said it is producing only tiny amounts of LNG. Iran wants sanctions relief before it reopens the strait, so this may take a while. Meanwhile tariffs, fuel costs and rates are all squeezing corporate margins at once.

This week's big event is not economic data but the Trump-Xi summit in Washington on September 24. Treasury Secretary Bessent met China's He Lifeng in New York beforehand, and US automakers sent a letter urging that Chinese cars be kept out. With feelings running that tense, markets could swing hard on the outcome later in the week.

One more item: President Trump said he will set up an AI Force to oversee AI regulation, which unsettled the industry. Chip stocks sagged on that news, so tonight's futures are worth a glance.